The BDGE Season-Long Bible

Welcome to the only Bible you ain’t gotta be religious to worship. I’ve heard arguments (not by me) that this is the most valuable Bible on gawd’s green Earth. No blasphemy or pun intended.

What is intended from the BDGE Bible is prep so thorough for your fantasy football draft it’ll make the Bank of Spain feel unsecure. No matter what crevice of a draft you might find yourself in, my hand is there for you to hold through it.

Player analysis pieces are fun, but football is a crazy game where the slightest on-field missteps cause statistical deviations so great that you thought projections got a self-isolating vaccine from reality.

This right here is what I do full-time. Wake up, coffee, research fantasy football shit, coffee, blog, adderall, research fantasy football shit, film, edit, coffee, thumbnail, post on youtube, marg, marg, marg, have sex every 3-4 months, sleep 3-4 times a week, wake up, rinse out the coffee cup if I have the energy, coffee, repeat.

Some of y’all might think that’s cool. I’m going to let you in on a little secret: it sucks!!!!!! With this lifestyle, there’s no way I live long enough to see an RB1 season out of my D’Andre Swift dynasty shares.

I’m fibbin. It’s not all bad, especially not for y’all who get to reap the benefits of my under-eye bags.

I chose this life. And you guys are going to exploit me for it like I’m a Chick Fil A’ employee on National Cow Appreciation Day.

I’ve been diving into 2021 fantasy football shit for as long as I can remember. Based on my drug habit, that’s about 6 months. And I have the receipts to prove it. Not the drug receipts, Lenny on the corner doesn’t give receipts with his product. Receipts that I’ve been doing research for the 2021 fantasy football season since before the year 2021.

With great knowledge comes a huge brain great power. With great power comes great cuntiness responsibility. Because I’ve been doing fantasy research for the last six months, I’ve seen just about every trend, strategy, player and team building that you can see. I’m old enough to remember 1st round James Robinson. I’m old enough to remember Saqu1.o1n. I’m not old enough to remember a lot of things, but I’m old enough to remember those things. And because I know so many things, I am the knower of many, many things, I feel a responsibility to bestow these things upon the big doooouuauaawgs.

I want to let you in on the secret of strategy, team-building and game theory to a higher degree than player analysis. There will be plenty of both, but I’m here to turn you into a better fantasy football player, not a better listener of people who think they know fantasy football.

As the old adage goes, bring a man a fish marg and he gets fed drunk. But if you TEACH a man how to fish make a marg, he’ll stay fed buzzed forever.

I’m trying to keep yall in rooftop summer sunset buzz energy forever.

Here’s how the Bible works:

• Starting with QB all the way, unfortunately, through Kicker. Next year I might install a dropdown option on the payment page for the draft guide that asks whether or not your league has kickers and if you select yes I don’t let you buy it. I’ll gladly sacrifice money if it means helping you build character. Sorry, byke to my previous thought, starting with the QB all the way through Kicker, we’ll go position-by-position guiding you through exactly how you should be attacking them in your fantasy football drafts this year.
• Each week, following the weekend of preseason games, I’ll update the Bible with the weekend’s biggest takeaways and how they should impact your draft. (These sections might be their own novel entirely, not added to the bottom of the Bible to save your wrists some energy)
• That’s it

So, without further adon’t, wherever you are whether standing, walking, sitting on the toilet, tuck your shirt in (idc if you’re takin a shit, tuck it in), stop yelling & let me present to you the 2021 BDGE Season-Long Bible. Bless up.

With each passing year, my energy to write this part for 1QB leagues sinks like Eddie Lacy in a pool.

Please for the love of gawd transition your league into the Superflex format so I don’t have to continue writing this section of the Bible.

But I’m here to make sure all the big dauauuuuwgs are eatin.

With the influx of talent at the QB position from an athletic standpoint, 1QB leagues have actually become a bit more interesting because the top-tier can actually be difference makers. Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Lamar Jackson in 2019 and Kyler Murray in 2020 prior to his shoulder injury in Week 11. I’ve yelled this stat into your earholes more than enough this summer. But one more time can’t hurt.

From Weeks 1-10 last year, Kyler Murray didn’t score fewer than 24.8 fantasy points in a single contest and was on a 16-game pace of 485.9 fantasy points.

AKA, the single greatest fantasy football season of all time.

Recently held by Lamar Jackson’s 2019 season (415.7), and Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 thumping and thrashing (415.1). Kyler’s 2020 pace would’ve given you a 4.7 fantasy point per game edge ON TOP of the highest fantasy scoring season of all time.

It’s why I’m SO bullish on him this year and perfectly fine drafting Mr. Murray in the middle rounds. He usually lasts until the mid 5th round, so he’s attainable to everyone. The Cardinals went ahead and signed Rodney Hudson to give him more protection along with using their 2nd round pick on Rondale Moore to give him some more play-making ability on the outside. Murray is an absolute menace to redzone defenses, and even if he has fewer overall rushing attempts this year, elite athletes are going to be elite athletes, and he’s going to take off when he sees the hole. He’s scoring a fuck-ton of TDs this year on the ground. Chalk it up big girls.

Mahomes is too pricy in drafts this year. I do believe before all is said and done, we’ll see a 60-TD campaign out of Mahomes, but I’m not going to bet on it in 2021. Realistically, him and Murray aren’t too far apart in my head. So to take Mahomes in the 3rd while Murray will be there 2 rounds later is just irresponsible. But those middle rounds of QB provide enough ammo that even if you don’t get a top-two option, you won’t fall too far behind positionally. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott are all going to ball. A round or two later you can snag Rus, Aaron Rodgers or Justin Herbert. After that, with the exception of a few guys, if you love them (Brady, Hurts), there’s not going to be a massive difference in who you draft.

One strategy I do love this year in 1QB leagues is leaving your QB slot open for either Trey Lance or Justin Fields. Both guys are gonna blast off in 2021 when they got in the field. They immediately join the QB1 conversation as soon as they’re under center. The only question is when does that happen? So, if you want to grab Lance or Fields in Rounds 9, 10 or 11, run it up. You can pair them with a late-round QB like Matt Ryan (who I hate this year), but he gets Philly’s atrocious defense at home in Week 1, Kirk Cousins who has a juicy early-season schedule of CIN, ARZ and SEA. Tbh, I don’t even hate Jimmy G with Lance because the Niners get DET and PHI off the rip, then GB, SEA and ARZ who aren’t defenses you really need to fear. If you want to get really spicy and double-tap rookie QBs, Trevor Lawrence has beautiful matchups in 3-of-4 (HOU, DEN, ARZ, CIN), you’ll just have to find a fill-in for Week 2.

I’d say this strategy is a bit riskier because we really don’t know when these rookies are getting on the field, but in 1QB leagues, the beauty of the position is that you get to shoot for upside because there’s so many usable options and literally zero positional scarcity. You’ll be able to pick up guys like Daniel Jones or Derek Carr at any point during the season. In 1QB leagues, you always shoot for upside.

Things change a bit when we shift to Superflex, and that’s when I start to rub my hands together and grin.

My main philosophy in Superflex formats is this:

• In Superflex leagues, whoever the worst QB that you’re comfortable starting in a 1QB is, that should be the target (or better) for your QB2 slot.
• For example, if you’re comfortable starting, at worst, Kirk Cousins at quarterback in a 1QB league, and he’s the 16th QB off the board, you should be comfortable taking him as QB16, and as your second QB in Superflex/2QB formats.

The whole idea behind the late-round QB strategy is that there’s very little difference in points scored per game among the QB position after you miss out on the elite QBs, and even most of those don’t matter in a format where you’re only starting one and 10 viable options are free to pick up on the waiver wire at any given moment. Because this strategy mathematically makes sense, it also makes sense for the QB2 spot, because it’s not as if the scoring settings are altered for Superflex leagues. Your rankings within the QB position don’t change. The only thing that changes is the positional scarcity at quarterback. You obviously need two start-worthy QBs, but they don’t need to both be elite.

This is a very important chart, and an idea I’m going to reference a lot throughout the Bible.

When you get into that low-end QB1 range in drafts, you have to realize, no matter how much you like a player, they’re not the difference maker in your lineup that you think they are. On average the dip from QB8 to QB18 is between 1 and 2 fantasy points/game. That’s it.

Last year we saw a wider gap, and that’s due to the forming of a higher tier of QBs. That’s what I was referencing in the 1QB portion of this writeup. It does feel like paying up for a top-8 guy makes sense in 1QB leagues because of this. We’re seeing more running QBs make an impact pushing the ceiling and floor up of the elite tier while giving us more options on the backend.

The ideal start to a Superflex league would be to secure a top-8 QB and two top running backs with your first 3 picks. Nail mid-round value WRs, or a TE that drops, secure your 2nd QB later than your opponents who think that your middling QB2 matters (they don’t) and a third upside QB much later in your draft – think Taysom Hill and Cam Newton. You don’t need to depend on them, they might flame out, get hurt or get benched. But, again, you don’t need them. If they do hit, you’re sitting on a goldmine or trade bait.

As I was saying before, we approach the QB position in 1QB leagues and Superflex differently. Because the position is more scarce in Superflex formats, I tend to be a bit more risk-averse. You don’t have a long leash here, because if your QB2 flames out, you could wind up in quicksand. So, while I still like the idea of getting your QB1 early, and taking either Lance or Fields in the 6-8th, it’s a bit riskier in this format, because you don’t have the luxury of falling back on Kirk Cousins a few rounds later, he’s probably off the board by the time you invest into one of these 1st rounders.

If your first 2 QBs are trustworthy like Aaron Rodgers + Kirk Cousins, or Russell Wilson + Ryan Tannehill, Taysom or Cam makes sense as your QB3 because the likelihood of you needing them in 2021 is super low. If your first 2 QBs are the Justin’s, Herbert & Fields, you’re going to need to use another single-digit round pick on a QB you know will give your lineup 17+ points weekly like Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, I’m okay with Carson Wentz at a value because of his injury. Just know this going in if you plan on ripping this strategy. You don’t want to end up in a spot where your QB1 is living life, spotting you 21 a week, but your QB2 (Daniel Jones, Tua, Ryan Fitzpatrick flops), and the rookie you were planning on winning your league isn’t even starting for his NFL team yet and your left Superflexing Marquise Brown. Do not be that person.

I usually do the WR & RB sections separate, but as I was writing this, I realized just how intertwined my philosophy on these two positions were, so I felt like I would have just been repeating myself if I separated them. So, here we are. A fatty.

Most folks don’t realize this, but very few things actually matter in life.

My bad I’ll save that conversation for my therapist.

What I REALLY meant was that very few things actually matter in fantasy football.

There are two things, as fantasy blokes we should live and die (if we get so lucky) by.

1. The top-end scorers, by position
2. Positional scarcity

The way MOST fantasy football leagues are set up in the modern world leads to the wide receiver position mattering less than a bachelor’s degree. The league setups with the most value skewed towards WRs are those which start 3 of them and score full PPR. That’s assuming no point per carry, per first down, no TE premium or bonus scoring. That’s the tip of the iceberg, which probably 15-20% of leagues use and still doesn’t have them running the same race as running backs (or QBs in superflex).

In 2020, Tyler Lockett finished as the WR12, a legitimate WR1, in fantasy football and did so by scoring 13.5 fantasy points/game. Cole Beasley, the WR35, averaged 10.8 fantasy points/game. Tim Patrick, the WR50 in fantasy football averaged 9.0 fantasy points/game. You could have waited to draft the WR35, WR45 and WR55 in your drafts as your starters, and still squeezed out 30 points per game between the 3 of them without having to use draft capital inside the first 7 rounds.

I consider a player to be built of league-winning caliber if they last a ~full season (min. 12 games played) and average over 20 fantasy points per game in those minimum 12 games (half ppr).

Two WRs over the last 10 years have accomplished it (Davante Adams last year & Odell Beckham Jr. as a rookie). That number is reached, on average, by more than 2 running backs per season dating byke to 2010.

Let’s take a look when we drop that number down to 18 fantasy points per game to make it a more even playing field (?).

The problem for the fantasy WR lies in the fact that not only do upper-echelon running backs score more total points, but because the gap between, say the RB12 and RB50 are already much wider positionally when you do hit on the RB1, RB2, or RB3 overall, it’s a much greater advantage because that running back is giving you more overall points than the top-scoring fantasy WR while simultaneously providing you with a massive gap between himself and your opponent’s running backs. It’s a dangerous, dangerous cocktail.

bUt WhAt iF iTs FuLl pPR?

Full PPR leagues will make the position a bit more valuable because WRs will obviously score more points overall but still doesn’t widen the gap amongst the WR position itself. Meaning, WRs will provide your lineup with more points overall, without providing any advantage to your team, because everyone’s WRs are getting more points. Workhorse running backs, ones that not only rack up the ground yards but catch a ton of passes will become exponentially advantageous.

VERY IMPORTANT SECTION

I went byke over the last five years to gather the data from PPR leagues in reference to points per game scoring at the RB vs. WR position to quantify the significance in overall points & positional advantage vs. scarcity.

Point 1

• Over the last five years, the RB1 overall has averaged 26.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
  • The RB13 has averaged 14.8 PPR fantasy points per game.
  • The RB50 has averaged 6.8 PPR fantasy points per game.

Point 2

• Over the last five years, the WR1 overall has averaged 22.7 PPR fantasy points per game.
  • The WR13 has averaged 15.7 PPR fantasy points per game.
  • The WR50 has averaged 9.1 PPR fantasy points per game.

Point 3

• Annually, the RB1 averaged nearly 4 PPR fantasy points per game more than the WR1.

Point 4

• The difference between the RB1 and the RB13, on average is 11.8 PPR fantasy points per game.
• The difference between the RB13 and the RB50, on average is 8.0 PPR fantasy points per game.
  • The difference between the RB1 and the RB50, on average is 19.8 PPR fantasy points per game.

Point 5

• The difference between the WR1 and the WR13, on average is 7.1 PPR fantasy points per game.
• The difference between the WR13 and the WR50, on average is 6.5 PPR fantasy points per game.
  • The difference between the WR1 and the WR50, on average is 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game.

Point 6

• It’s pretty fucking clearly laid out that even in full PPR leagues, and even more so, the running back position scores more overall points and gives you a SIGNIFICANTLY higher positional advantage when you do hit on them. The WR50 in PPR leagues (9.1 ppg) is very usable. The RB50 (6.8 ppg) is virtually unusable, especially versus a normal team’s RB2 averaging somewhere in 12-14 points per game.

And don’t get me started on leagues that only start two wide receivers. WRs have less value than a high school degree at that point. You want to talk about the late-round QB strategy? We’re starting the late-round WR wave here at BDGE so grab your mf surfboards because a tsunami is on the horizon.

There are close to 60-70 WRs I’d be okay starting my fantasy lineup on any given week. If you do the math, for a typical 12-team league, every team has 4-6 WRs they’d be A-okay throwing in their lineup. On the contrary, there are only 30-35 RBs we can rely on to produce for us in fantasy. That alone should indicate that using early-round draft capital is a poor choice.

The biggest pushback I get against my philosophy about your WR2 not really mattering are things like “but Stefon Diggs and Calvin Ridley and D.K. Metcalf” last year. Yes, they were good players. But literally, mathematically and scientifically based on ADP, for every one of those players drafted, D.J. Chark, Hollywood Brown, Odell Beckham, A.J. Green were drafted in the same spot, equally as often. That’s how drafts work and ADP works. The point is that we are AWFUL at predicting which player will be the correct player to draft, when you’re comparing the WR18 to WR19 or the RB31 to RB32 in ADP and when you’re in a draft that’s the decision you’re making. So, if you can understand that you don’t know if you’re going to pick the right player, but equally understand that if you DO choose the right player, doing it at the RB position is MUCH MORE VALUABLE.

For Dummies: We’re gonna be wrong on 50% of our WR picks. We’re gonna be wrong on 50% of our RB picks. Hitting on a WR will move the needle in fantasy 4.5/10. Hitting on an RB will move the needle 7.5/10 in fantasy. Therein lies the tie-breaker and the hypothesis by which everything I stand for lies. ID DIE FOR THIS SHIT

Let’s move to the specifics.

You’re going to be on the clock in the early rounds of your draft and feel super tempted to click the draft button on those shiny-looking WRs. The D.K. Metcalf, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Brown archetypes. Drafting wide-outs early leads you on a path that has a really slippery slope. As you get deeper into the middle rounds, you begin to realize how much value is sitting there at the position, and that you fucked up by using a premium pick on a wideout that early in drafts. The draft round gets higher and higher, but the names available to draft remain bedazzled. You’re in the 4th round of your fantasy draft with your choice of Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods available for the taking. If you’re in a superflex league you might even see names like King Keenan drop into the 4th.

If we’re looking at fantasy drafts round-by-round, I don’t see myself taking a WR in round one unless Davante Adams falls to the 1.11/1.12. And IF, major IF, you do that, you’re going to be tempted to pair Adams with either Diggs, Ridley, etc. DONT. Stop fucking around. The WR is the least valuable positional in fantasy simply because there’s not a positional advantage on a points per game basis to be had, even in the elite tiers. If you’re going to take a pass-catcher at this point in the draft, and while I advise against it, take a tight end. Travis Kelce if he drops, I’d even prefer Darren Waller in the 2.05-2.10 range over guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Jefferson, or A.J. Brown. Their 14.8 points per game do very little for moving the needle because the WRs you can get a few rounds later are going to score 11.9 points per game. While the 4th round selection of wideouts my not sound as flashy on paper, their stats will prove otherwise by the end of the year, I promise. At least those 14 points per game from Waller will put you light years ahead at a prickly position. If you’re at the 1.01, the 2.12/3.01 turn is best spent on a running back (Taylor, CEH, Gibson) + Waller if he’s there, instead of a shiny-named WR.

The way I’m looking at WRs, will depend a bit on my league scoring, but won’t vary drastically regardless.

The closer your roster settings are to starting 3 WRs and to full PPR, the more I want to use them in my flex. Because, remember, although the positional advantage isn’t there from WR-to-WR, once you hit the flex zone, the PPR ~WR40 is going to outscore the PPR ~RB4. If your league settings are similar to most of my leagues, you’re only forced to start 2 WRs (2 WR, 2FLX), and half ppr, the WR position is borderline worthless with anemic league-winning upside.

So, if you’re in a 1QB league, the first 3-4 rounds should be invested into some combination of running backs and a tight end. I wouldn’t reach for a TE, or even draft them unless they fall to me at value (Kelce in 2nd, Waller in 3rd, Kittle in 4th), but if they do, rip it. Otherwise, I’m looking to start with stacks like Zeke, Najee Harris and J.K. Dobbins or Derrick Henry, CEH and Darren Waller or Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler and David Montgomery.

Of course, there will be situations where WRs drop or you personally love a specific player, by all means, go for it. But it gets risky. If you decide to start with Aaron Jones and Calvin Ridley, you’re gambling that J.K. Dobbins or Chris Carson drops to you in the 3rd. If one of the running backs you’re comfortable with as your RB2 DOESN’T, however, you could wind up in a world of hurt, and Kareem Hunts. I want to lay my chips down on as many high-floor, high-upside RBs as possible in fantasy football.

Once you lock down your RBs, life is good. You’re more flexible than Simone Biles, without the emotional baggage. As the annual tradition goes, the middle-rounds provide more value at the wide receiver position than the McDonald’s dollar menu. To be clear we’re talking about the McDonald’s dollar menu from 10 years ago, not today’s $3 McDouble smfh.

My favorite way to attack the middle-rounds of WRs is to take a safe play here, who will slot into your lineup as a WR1, while likely performing as a high-end WR2. Think Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb if you’re lucky, but more likely the guys I listed above (Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones, Robert Woods – you can check our rankings to see who we like most, but the point remains). After you solidify your top spot, we can shoot for upside with guys like Diontae Johnson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyler Lockett, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, Antonio Brown, etc. Any of these guys are more than usable and completely attainable in Round 5+ of 1QB leagues and Round 6+ of Superflex leagues.

I’m not going to tell you to go into a draft with an absolute scopically defined strategy, but you should get the idea of what we’re trying to get out of this year’s draft. It’s running backs early and often & if there’s a nice TE that falls to you at value you pull fucking trig like a freshman who just took her sixth shot of tequila. We’re going to nail the middle rounds of our draft with young, explosive, upside wide receivers before locking down the other open-ends of our lineups. If that’s a 1QB league, we love Kyler in Round 5, followed by more WRs in Rounds 6 & 7. If you want to secure another WR2 in Round 5 and pivot that QB pick a few rounds later, you can typically still grab a top-tier fantasy QB (Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert) in Round 7 or 8.

At this point, I’d probably change gears, & grab one more high upside running back like Trey Sermon, Damien Harris, Chase Edmonds if he falls far enough, to safely secure that position for you. If he doesn’t hit, that’s okay, you already have your studs from earlier in the draft, if he does, you just got an elite flex play and an easy route to the playoffs.

We make our way into the double-digit rounds and it’s time to pivot back to wideouts if you’ve locked up the rest of your positions. If you drafted an elite tight end, I’m not worried about securing a backup. If it’s a TE premium league, I’m more intrigued because you can throw them into your flex and a low TE1 will usually perform like a borderline WR2/3 that you can grab in Round 8+. If you missed on an elite TE option (or any of the guys I liked that I discussed in the tight end section below), I’m perfectly fine double-tapping two young, upside TEs like (Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith, Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee) and be done with the position.

You’re going to get virtually nothing out of running backs drafted in the double-digit rounds. Despite popular opinion about taking other people’s handcuffs, I strongly oppose that bullshit. You’re not shooting for 1st place upside in the regular season of your season-long fantasy league. You just need to make it in the dance. For most people that’s the top-6 seeds. If you lose your first-round running back, you’re fucked. If you have his handcuff, whomst’ve will give you 85% of his production, you’ll be fine. My philosophy on handcuffs is this: if you have to ask who the handcuff is, there isn’t one. So, if you invested a first-round pick into Aaron Jones you SHOULD be drafting A.J. Dillon. If you invested a first-round pick into Ezekiel Elliott you SHOULD be drafting Tony Pollard. After the Panther’s first preseason game, I’ll go ahead and say that if you have the 1.01 and lock up C-Mac, go ahead and draft Chuba Hubbard big late. You can sit here and argue about Alexander Mattison being the handcuff to Dalvin Cook, but he kind of stinks. That being said, everyone knows that Mattison stinks, so he’ll be the cheapest of the handcuffs to draft. No one else wants to waste a pick on him, so I guess draft away. Outside of those guys, we don’t have clear handcuffs. We have a bunch of backups, who will form committees if the starter gets hurt. There are rumors of Latavius Murray on the chopping block, so we don’t care for him right now. Fuck Darrynton Evans. I guess Devontae Booker behind Saquon, but going back to my philosophy, nope. Kareem Hunt isn’t insurance, he’s a whole ass car with that 6th round price tag. Once you get into the 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounds, there aren’t handcuffs because the starters aren’t even projected workhorses themselves, hence why they fall into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th instead of being taken in the 1st.

Circling byke to the actual point of what I was saying before I went on that lil handcuff bender, Rounds 12+ are absolutely littered with wide receivers that are going to smash their value this year like Emmanuel Sanders, Marquez Callaway, Marvin Jones, Russell Gage, Bryan Edwards, Jakobi Meyers, Elijah Moore, all whomst’ve I wrote about in the Sleepers/Undervalued novel.

This is going to be ridiculous, so bear with me.

I’m going to run through this position group using an analogy. A college party.

You and your homies pull up to the mansion on frat row that is Sigma Beta Epsilon Pie Beta Beta, little did y’all know, you’re about to encounter every NFL tight end when you open up that door.

Travis Kelce is the first person you notice. The DIME. Non-debatable. By the time you’re ready to shoot your shot, she’s probably already taken. She’s the apple of every guy at the party’s eye. You might spend your entire night courting this 5’3 latina with the baby blue jeans that somehow hang perfectly below her belly button despite being a few inches too big. She’s not wearing a bra, proudly showing off the bee-stings up top. The problem with a girl like this is that even if you do close, you’re left feeling empty inside. Your insides, your roster is so hollowed out. You’re not well-rounded. You didn’t make any memories with your fuckin boys, You didn’t run the table in pong, you didn’t make any new friends because you spent every second infatuated with Kelcita. Some would argue the pursuit was worth it. She was just THAT hot. In 2020, Kelcita was a 9.9 and worth every second of that flirtatious investment. But at most parties, while Kelcita is the jaw-dropper, she’s only that hot relative to everyone else at this particular party.

Kelcita is a South Dakota 9.9, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Unless you’re comparing her to Christina McCaffrey, a Crimson Tide 9.9. Every once in a while, a Kelcita, who attends Miami U visits her high school friend enrolled at Quinnipiac, and they are 2020 Travis Kelce the real deal, but it’s not often. First-round Kelcita is not in my plans for the 2021 draft season.

Darla Waller. A nerdy bio major who rarely if ever showed face at the party scene until during the first three years of college, that was until she grew into herself and went off the rails as a senior. She’s smart, driven, pretty and knows herself well. The problem with Darla, and this is only a problem if your a fuckboy, is that girls like this ain’t fuckin on the first night. You and Darla’s first kiss is gonna be on date 3, after you planned a romantic picnic and lied to her about how interested you are in the inner workings of photosynthesis. But depending on how you look at relationships, this could be a really good thing. Despite the time draft capital you’re putting in for this connection between you and Darla to blossom, you’re getting something that’s real and consistent. There’s almost no downside to this choice outside of investment. She’s a needy gal. 30% of your targets time is required to make sure she’s fed properly. But she’ll do a lot with that 30%. She’ll break tackles and score touchdowns teach you new things, show you new places and she’ll unlock a side of you that you didn’t know existed. But, because she’s never been in a relationship and doens’t know what a healthy level of independence and romanticism should look like, she might be requiring a LITTLE BIT TOO MUCH of your attention draft capital. She very well might end up being the single best option at that party, but your predicament really comes down to whether or not you’re looking for a girlfriend at all. There are some really good options, at other positions parties. Darla seems like the option I’m most intrigued by of the three smokiest of shows at the party.

in one my most recent draft strategy videos I was able to get Waller at 3.11 and you’ll get the thumbs up from me on that

And speaking of the three hottest options at the part, assuming you decide to forego Kelcita because she’s simply too hot, and Darla because it’s too much commitment at this time in your life, we have a crazier, but still just as hot of an option for you. You look over to see Georgina sitting on the couch by herself. You’ve heard about this Georgina and this Kittley on the frat scene. She’s slept around a bit, but it’s hard to take your eyes off of her. There’s a risk here. You’ve seen her bop into the bathroom more than a few times already tonight. Often with a group, but sometimes alone. She departs the bathroom looking like she just lit a firework inside her body. As she closes the bathroom door, you see Georgina slip a key into her pocket. She’s filled with booger sugar. So, you ask yourself whether or not your prepared for a wild ride. The upside is real. And since she’s been skiing, she requires a lot less time investment to spark up a conversation and romance here. Shit can also go very wrong. You’ve heard the stories, she’s crazy. You heard she fell down a flight of stairs at formal last year and broke her foot, or separated her shoulder, or something like that. Do you really want to get involved in something that messy? From a purely physical perspective, you’re in. One look at Georgina and you’d walk across shards of glass just to suck the **** of the last guy that had sex with her. Sorry that was intense, it was a joke I heard at a comedy club last night. At this point, you can only assume – there’s a 50/50 chance she’s going to hurt herself tonight. And 50/50 chance inside that 50/50 chance that she hurts you. When you look byke on the night, you might end up having the most fun of anyone at the party with her. Or you might learn a valuable lesson. Oh, and she might be catching passes dating two guys quarterbacks. Neither seems to be serious because she can’t make commitments Don’t chase this type of player girl in all drafts at all parties, but it’s a worthy investment sporadically.

The party is filled with juniors and seniors. Familiar faces. Not all friends, but guys and gals you’ve drunkenly ripped tequila with at Wicked Willy’s $1 shot night, or from the cafeteria or library. But in walks a young, innocent-looking, yet still beautiful female. Holy smokes. But I don’t recognize her. So I turn to my friend who’s nickname is Matty Ice and I ask him who that is. He emphatically replies, “that’s Kiara Pitts – she’s a freshman”. This girl’s potential is SKY-HIGH. Matt tells you that she was accepted into the hottest sorority on campus drafted #4 overall, we haven’t seen a freshman like this in quite some time. You can smell the greatness in the air. But you have to ask yourself, is a freshman simply too young to pursue? They’re new to the scene. They take time to adjust and the safer play would be to fall back to someone you know. That junior Maria Andrews you had 2nd-semester history class with. Easy conversation starter. But Kiara is simply too mesmerizing not to consider. Freshman can be tricky. They might genuinely be too innocent that the time draft capital **required diminishes any spark that was there to begin with. They’re also inexperienced, so even if the draft capital required drops below what you originally expected, the experience might just be naturally underwhelming. I’m just saying, we’re yet to have sex with a freshman that was a stud in the bedroom and in your lineups!!! If you’re in dynasty looking for a long-term investment, Kiara is absolutely worth every second. The upside is that you might wind up dating the next president of the United States. Or an Instagram model with 1.6 million followers. Both are all-time outcomes. But the point being, even Emily Ratakoswki had 100 Instagram followers at one point. We want million-follower Emily in redraft, not hundred. Kiara is a pass for me at an early ADP.

After the mystery & intrigue of the top-tier hotties fade away with each shot of tequila funneled into your belly, your beer goggles invade your face and begin to raise the scores of the clearly less capable options.

You make your way down the hall to the bathroom and pass by Tara Jacqueline, or T.J. as her friends like to call her. She’s a pale, but cute-looking irish gal. You already know T.J. In big fact, you’ve already hooked up with Tara Jacqueline. T.J. is cool, funny, smart and a pretty good lay. You know what you’re getting with her. But she’s not desperate. She’s not a sure thing. You do have to throw a bit of time and energy her way to rekindle the chemistry. Listen, T.J. will never be as hot as Kelcina or well-rounded as Darla, but you’re not going to be disappointed and she can be the cap to a fantastic all-around Saturday night. Vodka Punch for punch, Tara is probably one of the best value mates at the party.

There’s also one new player on the scene tonight. You and Tommy from down the hall party like it’s 1999 regularly. Tommy’s sister and Tommy’s sister’s friend are visiting for the weekend and they joined your squad for the night. Now, at this point in the draft night, you’ve already been warned that Tommy’s sister’s friend Davante Adams is in a serious relationship. Unfortunately, Tommy’s sister’s friend looks like Zendaya. Despite all of the heinous thoughts that have already occupied your brain at this party, you’re actually a good person and your respect relationships, so she’s off your board. BUT TOMMY’S SISTER, Roberta Bonyans. You remember Roberta visiting last year, during the Spring semester I think it was and man was she cute. But you didn’t pick her up off waivers pursue because you already had your sights set on someone else, and let’s be real, it’s Tommy’s sister! But this time around, I mean, you’re both single and I’m not going to sit back and wait for another man to snipe me on Ms. Bonyans.

The rest of the party is riddled with unknowns with girls like Amy Trautman and Tyla Higbee, or girls you’ve shot your shot with at prior parties only to fall short like the twins Joann & Iva Smith, Michelle Gesicki, Blair Jarwin. Maybe the second times a charm? New opportunities with veterans boyfriends are out of the picture. Hey, even Tommy’s newly single-mom (Gronk), directly out of her retirementlationship showed up to the party looking like a straight snack. Who knows what she’s got in store, but it’s a damn good story if it works out.

What you want to do at this point in the night, is start a group conversation. You want to target two tight ends to double your chances here. You’re shooting 0%. And you know what’s better than 0%? 0% multiplied by 2! Y’all know who I like most at this point in the draft (Robert Tonyan, Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith).

After that, they all stink. But after striking out with more than a dozen cuties, you’re ready to settle and take what you can get. It’ll be uninspiring and you’re doing this simply to fill a void in your lineup heart. Let’s be better than this.

Anything past TE18 is basically the lights coming on at the party. You waited on Cole Kmet or Jared Cook? You literally waited for the police to show up. One of the officers happened to be a female and you shot your shot. Don’t do this. She’s just as likely to shoot you.

Man that was some of the most beautiful shit I’ve ever written. Brb I gotta go take a shower.

Okay I’m byke and cleaned.

TL:DR crew

• I strongly dislike nearly all TEs at their current ADP. I won’t take Kelce in the 1st, Waller in the 2nd, Kittle in the 3rd. BUT if they drop a round, Kelce in the 2nd, Waller in the 3rd, Kittle in the 4th, I’m all aboard.
• Pitts and Andrews are off my board as early-middle-round picks. Hockenson is a lock for 110+ targets in an offense with almost no target competition. He’s the mid-round TE pick you want to make, if one at all. I likely won’t take him in the 5th, but like the top three options, if he falls a round or two (late 6th-7th), I’m very much okay pulling the trigger.
• I want all the Robert Tonyan I can get as my late-round TE this year. He’s exactly what we look for in a breakout tight end. Super athletic profile. Tied to one of the most accurate QBs of all time. In an offense that will be prolific and with little target competition. And we’ve already seen him breakout. He’s priced as if we’re projecting a breakout. His TD numbers will dip, but on a per-target basis he was wildly efficient, and with more volume, entering the year as the clear-cut TE1, more volume + good efficiency = wonderful pick.
• If you miss on all of those guys, stack up two high-upside TEs and pray – Irv Smith, Jonnu Smith, Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, Adam Trautman, etc.

There’s a case to be made for drafting a good defense, but my personal strategy on defenses is the same every year. They’re reserved for the 2nd to last round (in leagues that have kickers) and the last round for leagues without (<3).

I’ll base my pick of defenses off of two things.

1. Week 1 matchups. If there are multiple favorable matchups to choose from, look ahead to Week 2. It’s like a game of survivor, who has the shittier schedule.
2. Temas with fireworks offense. It might seem counter-intuitive, but the more points an offense scores, the more passing the opponent has to do. More passing = more sacks, interceptions and forced fumbles. The standard scoring settings for fantasy defenses don’t factor in yards allowed, so consider that if your league does. If that’s the case, go byke to Rule 1. I’m not worried about your defense losing points based on points allowed, that will take care of itself through QB pressure fantasy points.

So, which teams have good Week 1 matchup:

Tampa Bay, has the best Week 1 + Week 2 slate, but they’re also widely regarded as a top-tier defense and there’s a good chance someone in your league jumps up a round to take them. Buffalo is an interesting proposition. They fit both bills, not pun intended. They’re a touchdown favorite in Week 1, despite playing against the Steelers, which will make most people shy away from and they’re going to force Big Ben to pass a lot. They play Miami in Week 2, who should be a good team, but Tua might struggle early on. I could see that being a multi-turnover game for him. Then they get the wild Fitzpatrick in Week 3. This Bills offense is going to score enough to make opponents put the pedal to the metal and make mistakes. The Chiefs aren’t on this list, but the same goes with them. They play the Browns in Week 1, who I’m super high on for the 2021 season, but as 6.5-point favorites in Arrowhead, I like the idea of taking KC. I don’t hate the idea of rostering two defenses to ensure you have a strong matchup weekly.

In-season, what I look at for fantasy defenses are games that the team is projected to win (per Vegas), playing at home, against rookie/turnover-centric QBs. The biggest the spread the better. Low over/unders are a good measure of safety. If a defense is a 4-6 points favorite in a game that’s projected to be low-scoring, they’re a rock-solid bet to score 7-9 fantasy points for you. The higher the over/under for the game, the bigger spread we want to see, and the more upside that defense gives you in fantasy. The 20+ point plus explosion weeks usually come from a defense playing against just an absolutely atrocious offense, or a shootout that forces a lot of passes and pick-sixes.

Furious at myself for even writing this section. I don’t care about kickers. Idk why they’re still in your league.

Draft a kicker with your last pick. One on an offense that’s going to score a lot of points. And don’t switch them. That’s how you wind up playing whack-a-mole and catching every kicker’s 3-point game in your lineup, weekly. If you drafted on and they REALLY STINK, go ahead and swap them out, otherwise projecting fantasy kickers from week-to-week is less predictable than what Antonio Brown’s next tweet is going to say.