The Official Must-Own List.

I’m not going to litter this page with 25 players, because I want to shoot my shots precisely and without wavering. This ain’t a spray and pray. The purpose of this must-draft list is to get y’all paid handsomely. You bought this guide and I want to pay you byke in league-winnings exponentially.

Your path to bringing home hardware will be a long, tumultuous, marg-filled journey, but a little less so with this list. So, these are MY FUCKIN DOGS for the 2021 fantasy football season, position-by-position.

I’ve gone full circle on Kyler this offseason, but I’m done getting cute and I’m locked in like Alcatraz.

Murray was the highest scoring player in fantasy football from Weeks 1-16. Murray entered Week 17 with a leg injury, before getting his ankle rolled on and missing the rest of the game. Josh Allen passed him in scoring to sit atop the throne. Kyler’s 2020 fantasy point total (392.7) would’ve seen him finish as fantasy’s #1 overall player in 5 of the previous 10 seasons.

The bigger story here is what Kyler did before the shoulder injury he suffered in Week 11. His weekly fantasy point totals from Weeks 1-10:

27.3, 33.1, 24.7, 25.1, 27.3, 28.9, 38.1, 37.9, 30.9.

Nine games. None with fewer than 24.7 points scored.

That’s a 16-game pace of 485.9 fantasy points.

AKA, the single greatest fantasy football season of all time.

Recently held by Lamar Jackson’s 2019 season (415.7), and Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 thumping and thrashing (415.1). Kyler’s 2020 pace would’ve given you a 4.7 fantasy point per game edge ON TOP of the highest fantasy scoring season of all time.

The Cards continued to slowly build around the TWENTY THREE (23) year-old Heisman winner, adding all-world athlete Rondale Moore to their receiving group and snagging the 8th highest-graded center in the league, Rodney Hudson, from the retched Raiders. Hudson is a huge addition to a line that was already PFF’s 5th best pass-blocking line in the league. Despite everything out of my mouth since 2018 in regards to A.J. Green – I won’t be surprised if he’s a +EV addition to this offense. I’ve told y’all to fade him in fantasy because he keeps entering the year with injuries and y’all keep telling me his foot injury isn’t serious. And 4 years later here we are. But it seems he won’t be joining Larry Fitzgerald in a nursing home this year, so the Cards have done a good job securing a dynamic group of playmakers for Kyler to slang it to.

Single QB, Superflex, it doesn’t matter: Kyler is giving you league-winning positional advantage at a position that rarely comes equipped with that feature, like a fantasy football draft guide that actually provides value.

Lamar Jackson is one year removed from breaking fantasy football and leading the NFL in passing touchdowns.

Let that marinate like a 3-star Michelin steak.

In 2019, Lamar Jackson threw 36 passing touchdowns and was picked off (6) at a lower rate than pimples on a newborn’s face. This man averaged 27.7 fantasy points per game in 2019.

The stat that everyone and their mother chose to zone in on was Lamar’s insane 9.0% touchdown rate. Meaning, 9% of Jackson’s throws in 2019 went for scores. An astronomical rate. A rate that’ll get you a blowjob at church.

Do you guys remember who his pass-catchers were when he did that?

It was Mark Andrews (852). And that was it.

Rookie Hollywood Brown (584) had a screw in his foot, Hayden Hurst (349), Willie Snead (339), and Nick Boyle (321). I’m not making this up.

Jackson’s fantasy production took a dip in 2020. But do you know what remained constant? His rushing floor of 1,000 yards. And a wildly high TD rate. It wasn’t 9.0%, but 6.9% is still pretty fucking high. It would’ve flirted with league-leading in 2016, 2015 and 2012. We’re seeing a theme here. Lamar won’t be pretty slinging it, but fantasy isn’t about style points, it’s about points. And Jackson is going to continue to be a menace on the ground as well as efficient via flight.

Fast forward two years from his MVP campaign, and the Ravens 2021 weapons group will feature a prime Mark Andrews, 3rd-year Hollywood Brown taking the top off of defenses without the need for a featured role, an absolute stud possession receiver in rookie Rashod Bateman, and because I’d like to hit a certain word-count for this novel, Sammy Watkins, Tylan Wallace and Devin Duvernay. I won’t pretend that Baltimore’s running backs are going to catch more than 50 passes this year, but it’s nice to know that a dump-off to J.K. Dobbins at least has the chance for a crib call.

The weapons are night and day. And because of it, we should see career-numbers from Jackson on the passing side of the ledger.

1000 rushing yards with a handful of, if not consistent 35+ fantasy points weeks, is what you’re getting with Lamar in 2021. I mean, shit, the Ravens opening schedule is LV, KC and DET. He might single-handedly put you at 3-0. (1-of-2 PIT matchups is in Week 18!)

If you’re someone in the camp that’d be surprised if Lamar once again finishes as the #1 overall quarterback and/or player in fantasy in 2021, it’s time to start recalibrating your brain wires and incorporating fish oil into your diet.

Everything I say for…

There is just no chance Kyle Shanahan doesn’t switch his “Jimmy G is our starter” energy up before September. This kid Trey Lance is a STAR. Despite not playing football in nearly two years, his arm looked unbelievable in the 49er’s first preseason game. But it’s not his arm you’re going to be thanking for fantasy points, it’s the lower half of his body. Lance was the starter for one full season at North Dakota State. While the kid sported 2,786 passing yards and an unblemished 28:0 TD-to-INT ratio, he ran for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns. This kid truly has a fantasy ceiling akin to Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.

He’s immediately stepping into one of the most creative offensive systems under an offensive guru with Kyle Shanahan sprinkled with all-pro caliber weapons in George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. And as good teams tend to do, the Niners will trot out the #9 ranked offensive line in 2021. They used their 2nd-Round pick on Aaron Banks after re-uniting Center Alex Mack with Kyle Shanahan to handle snapping the ball to Trigga Trey. The acquisition of Trent Williams last year made damn sure this line is locked & loaded for their rookie QB.

Is there a chance that Jimmy G starts the year? It’s getting slimmer by the day, and by the practice reports, but there’s a chance the door remains open. Is there a chance Jimmy G finishes the year as the starter? Absolutely fucking not.

And when it’s time for Trey to get out there, he’s going to bring top-5 weekly fantasy upside to your lineup.

If you’re in a 1QB league – draft him in the 9th-10th round, followed by a safety blanket like Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield or Matt Ryan in the 12th+ that you can start for a few weeks until Lance is entrenched under center. The same strategy holds in Superflex leagues, just a few rounds earlier.

Also goes for…..

too. So get one of these guys, please.

if watson moves to the eagles, you dont even think about drafting hurts in houston

2021 Jalen Hurts feels exactly like 2019 Lamar Jackson entering his sophomore year. We have a small sample from the prior year, unappetizing as a thrower as mayo on a steak, but the rushing was there and it was so obvious the fantasy points were coming by the boatload in year two.

People are thinking way too hard about this one.

The Eagles literally let Carson Wentz run his way out of Philly. Rather than letting the two compete, they said they’d rather let him go, eat [ALL that money](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/carson-wentz-18950/#:~:text=Carson Wentz signed a 4,average annual salary of %2432%2C000%2C000.) and leave the QB room to be in Hurts’ full control.

Last year, Hurts started (and finished) 3 games for Philly. In those three starts, he scored: 19.3, 37.8 and 18.6 fantasy points. He threw for more than 335 yards in 2-of-3 games. In the 4 games to end the season (Week 17 Doug Pederson infamously pulled Hurts for Sudfeld to tank), Hurts ran the ball 46 times. That’s a 16-game pace of 184 rush attempts. 184 rush attempts by a QB would set the single-season record at the position. Like I should probably stop right here.

But I won’t.

Hurts has a super legitimate chance to become the 3rd QB in the NFL’s history (Vick, L-Jax) to rush for more than 1000 yards in a season. Well, with the 17 games he definitely should, but y’all know what I mean.

I’m not going to try and pretend his receiving group is drastically improved, but I think DeVonta Smith will be a true #1 for him, and that makes Reagor fall into the role he should have been playing all along, a WR2. The offensive line, however, will be better. It has to be. The entire line was hurt last year. Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, Lane Johnson, Jason Peters, Isaac Seumalo. Like it was actually crazy.

Y’all shit on me for Miles Sanders last year. But in an alternate, JUST universe, Miles Sanders was Barry Sanders in 2020.

Hurts is by far and away my most owned player in Underdog so far this year. He started the offseason going in the 8th/9th round and has been moving up accordingly.

Here’s a big fact for you: Ezekiel Elliott is the same age as Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. You would think Zeke is these kids’ fathers the way he’s talked about on dynasty twitter.

This man is one year removed from signing a MASSIVE contract that can’t possibly say you are our workhorse, bell-cow, featured running back any more clearly for the next 2-3 years than it does. Do you remember how stubborn the Cowboys were with Dak’s contract? The fact that they inked Zeke to this type of deal should say enough.

But it clearly doesn’t for y’all, so we will.

The only thing that really matters for Zeke’s fantasy outlook in 2021 is Dak being on the field.

In the five games Dak played in 2020, Zeke was averaging over 20 half ppr fantasy points per game. Those are legitimate league-winning type numbers.

6.6 TARGETS/GAME !!!!!!!!

I literally could not give a shit less what Zeke did for the remainder of the season. He dealt with hamstring & calf issues while having to run behind a beat-up offensive line and Ben fucking DiNucci. Give me a fucking break. None of that is predictive for the 2021 season.

The biggest concern here isn’t Tony Pollard. It isn’t Zeke being washed. It’s the offensive line. Or at least it was last year. The Cowboys had more injuries on their o-line last year than LeBron suffers on a single layup. Luckily, we have people in this world that sit at their computer screens and let us know how good or bad the thicc boys up front are going to be next year.

Per PFF – the Cowboys have the 6th best offensive line entering the 2021 season. “The Cowboys finished just 27th in our final 2020 offensive line rankings, but that was due in large part to injuries. This unit looks much better on paper heading into 2021.”

We can’t overstate this enough: Dallas will get byke Tyron Smith and La’el Collins. The retirement of Travis Frederick hurt, but they have a stud in Zack Martin and Connor Williams has been improving annually, grading out as the 17th best guard in football last year. This will be a top-10 front, at worst, in 2021.

Zeke’s career-low yards per carry mark should be attributed and only attributed to the offensive line collapse. His elusiveness, juke rate and missed tackles forced were on par with every other year of his career – aka – outside of offensive line play Zeke performed like Zeke.

I’m not saying Zeke is a must-buy in dynasty leagues, but he’s going to squeeze out at least one more top-5 fantasy season for those that draft him in 2021.

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Straight up, Ekeler has league-winning upside in the lord’s year of 2021. I’m talking overall fantasy RB1 upside. If you’re playing in a standard/non-PPR scoring league:

1. u probably made a huge mistake buying this draft guide and should email us (info@bigdogsfantasy.com) for a refund
2. dont
3. no
4. u should skiiiiirt away from ekeler in your draft

But if you’re in any sort of PPR league, it’s takeoff time.

In 2019, Ekeler saw 108 targets. That was more than Calvin Ridley, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, among a zillion other guys who get paid to catch passes for a living specifically.

In 2020, in games with Justin Herbert, Ekeler was on pace to see 114 targets. That would’ve outpaced A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Adam Thielen, among a zillion other guys who get paid to catch passes for a living specifically.

If there’s one thing we know for sure, it’s that Austin Ekeler is finishing north of 100 receiving targs in 2021.

What we don’t know and where the upside lies is on the ground. And while, admittedly, Ekeler isn’t built to be a 275+ carry guy, the rest of the Chargers backfield is built like a Sunbelt conference depth chart: Josh Kelley, Justin Jackson, Larry Rountree 🤮🤮🤮.

With Anthony cockblock Lynn sporting another uniform, to ruin another backfield in 2021, we should be wildly optimistic about new Chargers OC Joe Lombardi running this offense. Why? Because he spent the last 5 years under Sean Payton as the QBs coach in New Orleans. Do you know who he watched dismantle defenses for 4-of-5 seasons? Alvin Kamara. Kamara has finished as a top-10 fantasy running back in all four of his NFL seasons, finishing as the RB3 or higher in 3-of-4. He did this while never topping 194 carries…. Averaging 168 carries a year.

Anthony Lynn treated his running back rotation like it was a perfected math equation. He’d place a scale on their sideline, and when his offense found itself within the 5-yard-line he’d have his running backs line up, step on the scale and whoever’s number flashed as the highest would be awarded with the goal-line carries. Didn’t matter how bad the running backs were. And some of them were BAD. Kalen Ballage for christ’s fucking sake out-carried Ekeler on the goal-line last year 6-2. It’s worth noting that Ballage led Chargers in redzone (22), 10zone (13) and goal-line carries in 2020. He’ll be rotting away in Pittsburgh this year.

After watching what Kamara did over the last four years, there’s no way that Lombardi doesn’t imagine a similar role for Ekeler this year. Ekeler taking just 50% of the goal-line carries this year would be a MASSIVE upgrade on the crumb-type opportunity he’s gotten under Lynn.

I haven’t even touched on the fact that this will be one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL with Herbert coming into his second year, which will mean more scoring opportunities, more offensive plays overall and more time on the field.

Ekeler has always been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL, so I can only imagine what his per/touch numbers are going to shoot to behind the NFL’s most improved offensive line. The Bolts added All-Pro (and number one graded center per PFF) Corey Linsley to their offense and used their first-round draft pick on the anchor Rashawn Slater (1.13). They went stealth mode with the additions of Matt Feiler and Oday Aboushi, too – both graded inside the top-32 guards per PFF.

At the end of the day, outside of the ones the offensive line will be opening for Ek, I see very very few holes in this offense for 2021: big-armed, young QB entering his prime, massively improved offensive line, tremendous exterior weapons that keep the defense sweating, and an elite pass-catching running back. I want that running back like I want Zendaya.

I’ll leave you with this: during the four weeks that Melvin Gordon held out in 2019, we saw the damage that Ekeler could inflict as the uninterrupted workhorse:

Wow, even I didn’t remember how good Ekeler was before dropping the chart above —- 24.25 half ppr fantasy points per game… If the term league-winner was in the dictionary, it would be a picture of the right portion of that picture. It’s simply too much upside to pass on at the end of the 2nd round.

The case for Carson reminds me a lot of the case made for Zeke, just with a lot less money. Carson is 26, not 36. The Seahawks, resigned the wildebeest formally known as Chris Carson to a 2-year, $10.5M extension this off-season.

Carson is going to be the guy behind Russell Wilson. And we needn’t say much more.

But again, we will.

There are two reasons fantasy drafters shy away from Carson.

1. His injury history. While I can’t argue the hesitancy grounded in the concern, a 5th round price more than factors in that concern while weighing the upside.
2. I guess, Rashaad Penny? Penny is in his final year on his rookie contract and it feels like he’s yet to play a game in the NFL. Technically he’s played in 27-of-48 (56%) games since entering the league. He’s coming off of an ACL tear and is already having procedures done on his knee this summer.

The big takeaway from last year was Carson’s uptick in passing work. How high is a fantasy running back’s ceiling if they don’t catch passes (or aren’t of the alien species like Derrick Henry)? Roof level. But like Zeke, people aren’t as privy to just how involved Carson was in catching passes last year before the injuries slowed him down. Carson’s 46-37-287-4 in 12 games would have us witness a 61-49-383-5.3 16-game pace from Carson as a receiver. Those are BIG time numbers for someone who’s averaged 75 rushing yards/game over the last three seasons.

As noted, injuries plagued Carson for most of 2020, which led to the dip in volume, but on an efficiency level, Carson was as good as ever, setting a career-high averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

We’re hearing a lot rumbling out of Seattle that new OC Shane Waldron’s offense is supposed to be very uptempo in 2021 and we love to hear that. Quick passes are the name of the uptempo game. And there’s nothing quicker than a lil dump-off to one running back named Christoper Carson.

Carson isn’t a “pass-catching” back by the furthest stretch of the imagination, but as long as he can catch the ball and coaches want to throw it to him (think Carlos Hyde in SF circa 2017 – 88 targets).

There’s a TON of uncertainty in this backfield. And I’m very away that there’s still a lot not to like about this situation for Damien Harris. But I like Damien Harris more than I don’t like the situation.

They re-signed James White to a shit one-year deal. That hurt. But that little thorn in the dick Rex Burkhead is finally gone, which should tighten up the running back opportunity funnel. Sony Michel is still in New England, for now… They drafted Oklahoma’s Rhamondre Stevenson in the 4th round, which could mean competition, but could mean Michel is on his way out.

I know it’s hard to remember anything back as far as last summer but we need to try our hardest. Sony Michel was dealing with a foot injury all summer, drink, and it led to Harris soaking up first team reps before getting thrown onto the IR with a hand injury, which kept him out the first three games of the season.

Those first team reps prior the injury were clearly intended, because the Pats wasted no time letting Dame reak havoc upon his return. Harris came byke in Week 4, ripped off 100 yards on 17 carries against the Chiefs, before injuring his quad and eventually an ankle injury just a couple of weeks later. It became a lost first half of the season for the 3rd-round Alabama product.

But, by Week 8, Harris was healthy and he became the guy in New England’s backfield. He averaged just below 15 carries/game and posted an impressive 74 rushing yards per from Week 8 through the remainder of the season. In that span of 8 games he averaged over 5 ypc and 3.2 YAC/attempt.

The advanced metrics tell the story of what Damien Harris was in 2020:

He was an elusive, shifty, burstful running back, in an anemic offense that was absolutely stacked against by defensive fronts at a rate unprecedented. Harris was legitimately good last year as a pure running back.

Per Marcus Mosher, Here’s every 10-yard run by Damien Harris last year:

And he did it while defenses swarmed on top of the offense. While it’ll still likely be the case, to a lesser extent in 2021, nothing was worse than the group of pass-catchers they had last year.

Tuning into their offense was like opening up the snack drawer only to find NutriGrain bars, pretzels, raisins and seltzer.

The Pats decided to splurge in free agency – bringing in Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. While the closet still ain’t stacked with oreos and peanut butter, at least we’ve got some old, stale 3rd-best flavor poptarts. We can work with this. You might have to a lil drunk to enjoy it, but nonetheless.

The new weapons should alleviate some of the pressure on Cam, Harris and the offensive line. Speaking of the offensive line, even with Marcus Cannons opting out of the season, the Pats managed to finish as PFF’s 6th best run-blocking line in the league. They enter 2021 as PFF’s 3rd best offensive line.

Harris will be efficient because he makes guys miss in tight spaces AND because the offensive line will give him room. Per PFR, only Raheem Mostert averaged more yards before contact on his carries than Damien Harris did in 2020. The line will be good, he will be good, the offense is questionable but will be way better than last year. The QB situation will be the wildcard here, but I think we see Cam for the majority of the season. It’ll hurt Harris on the GL, but help the offense overall.

Is Harris going to catch 30 passes, probably not, his ceiling is probably capped at like high-end RB2, maybe top-15 fantasy back with some no-show games, but I think he’s a lock to finish as an RB2 this year that you’re getting for a borderline RB4 price tag.

MY BOY LOOKED FUCKING GOOD!

Fuck what you heard about Harris and Sony Michel being a 1A-1B tandem. Michel didn’t step onto the field until the second-team accompanied him in doing so. Harris looked fantstic on the ground. It might not have shined through in the box-score because Harris had a few very nice runs called back on penalties and outside of very obvious passing situations which forced James White onto the field, Harris dominated first-string playing time.

I absolutely love Trey Sermon as a football player. That’s a good start.

Sermon sports a 215lb frame with really high agility and burst levels.

This type of athletic profile puts him squarely in that Josh Jacobs, James Robinson, Kareem Hunt range. You know what the beautiful thing about that player spectrum is? Draft capital don’t fuckin matta!!!!! First-rounder, 3rd rounder, undrafted, in reality, the NFL doesn’t care if you’re slow as long as you thicc and can wiggle like jello.

Sermon was never a burner in college, he won with subtle quickness at the line of scrimmage and between the trenches. He’d made quick moves in tight spaces (hence the agility score) and blow through the line for quick 8, 11, 17-yard gains (hence the burst score).

And the Kyle Shanahan RB speaks for itself. People like to talk about the carousel within this backfield, but anytime we saw split carries in a Shanahan backfield it’s because of injuries.

We CANNOT forget Devonta Freeman was the overall RB1 in Atlanta under Shanahan in 2015 – he had 361 opportunities in 15 games… over 24/game.

In 2017, Carlos Hyde saw 240 carries and 88, yes 88 targets….

I’m a fan of Sermon’s talent and the increasingly optimistic opportunity share he’s creeping towards with Jeff Wilson already landing on the PUP and Mostert limited at practice sporting a knee brace. His ADP is going higher and higher because of this upside, and I’m not saying I like where he’s getting drafted, but a monster rookie year with big-time upside is real.

This team wasn’t even a top-20 scoring team in the NFL last year and had 40 carries inside the 10-yard line. Their healthy (Kittle and Deebo both byke) and hopefully Trey Lance under center. Shit is gonna be spicy in SF this year, and Sermon is going to benefit.

Raheem Mostert did NOT play in the Niners first preseason game, but Sermon started the game and played on 75% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s snaps. So those of y’all clammering about Wayne Gallman being the RB2 or Elijah Mitchell being the rookie to own in this backfield can finally stfu.

As you probably figured out by this point in my flawless novel, you want pieces of this Chargers offense no matter what their name is. By any means necessary. Except Josh Kelley, Larry Rountree, Justin Jackson, Joe Reed, Donald Parham and Virgil Green.

I have Keenan Allen SO much higher than every set of rankings & ADP I’ve come across so far this year. ’21 Keenan Allen seems to be one of the most attainable+safest combo WR picks in fantasy in recent memory. Allen joined Hopkins and MT as the only three WRs with 100+ catches in three seasons since 2017.

But what intrigues me far more than the safety, is his upside.

Looking byke at 2020, if we take Allen’s stats and dismiss

• Week 1 (with Tyrod as QB)
• Week 15 (Allen played in 25% of snaps bc of hamstring injury)

We’re looking at a 16-game pace of:

• 181 targets
• 126 receptions
• 1,251 receiving yards
• 11 touchdowns

126 receptions would be the 7th highest single-season total in NFL history.

This offense is going to be scary good with Justin Herbert getting a full off-season under him as the starter and a massively upgraded offensive line. The Chargers signed All-Pro center Corey Linsley to a 5-year, $62.5M which will prove to be one of the top free agent signings of the summer when we look byke on it a year from now. They also used the 13th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft on stud OL Rashawn Slater. “Four-fifths of the Chargers line features new starters, starting with rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater. He allowed just five pressures on 355 attempts in 2019 and moves like a tight end when getting to the second level in the run game.” They’re also getting Bryan Bulaga byke from injury. Mannnnn.

Their offensive line saw addition by addition, but let’s focus on addition by subtraction.

Hunter Henry is gone and that’s big because it raises Allen’s touchdown potential, which isn’t something we draft Allen for, and is probably the reason he annually falls in drafts. Hunter Henry led the Charges in targets inside-the-10 (8) last year, while only playing in 14 games.

The Chargers don’t have a run game. They tried the Josh Kelley thing last year. It was like trying animal trying hot yoga, aint happening. They added Larry Rountree in the draft who is Josh Kelley round 2, but worse. Good lord.

I said they don’t have a run game, not that they don’t have a running back. Austin Ekeler is still very much goated. And I’ve heard a lot of pushback on my Keenan Allen take surrounding his volume when Ekeler missed time last year. Well, unlike these other fantasy youtube channels and podcasts, I’ve got big facts for you:

 

Allen’s volume was EXACTLY the same regardless of whether or not Ekeler played. 10.5 targets. Left, right, up, down, hurt, healthy, 10.5 targets. Did the production dip? Yes, but we’re not here to predict touchdown totals, volume is much stickier, and it stuck last year for Allen.

Some of y’all might be worried about his age. He’s kind of old (29), but no one ACTUALLY thinks he’s falling off, right? We’ll byke that up with Reception Perception just in case y’all are feeling childish today.

95th percentile vs man coverage last year?

That success rate vs. man coverage was the 2nd highest of Allen’s career.

Y’all are thinking too hard about this one. Draft Keenan Allen in the 3/4th round of 1QB leagues and 4th/5th of Superflex leagues like your lives depend on it. Because your make-believe fantasy lives do.

Ridley’s WR7 ADP will correct itself shortly, but it’s the big facts that we have at hand right now, so let’s roll.

If you’ve simply turned on your television, or follow a single sports account on Instagram, Twitter or TikTok over the last two months, this Calvin Ridley pick is rather obvious.

With enough unknown surrounding the QB situation in Green Bay, the fantasy WR throne is completely up for the taking and I’ve seen a lot of smart people, smartly suggest that Ridley has what it takes to claim it.

As does. Vegas.

According to DraftKings, Calvin Ridley has the highest odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards this year at +750.

Some people are quick to compare the situation in Atlanta to that in Pittsburgh – a young, up-and-coming WR (PuPu Smith-Schuster) whomst’ve was going to set the league ablaze when the incumbent WR1 (Antonio Brown) left the team, but the complete opposite happened. JuJu simply couldn’t beat opposing number one cornerbacks. After studying Matt Harmon’s reception perception on JuJu, there should be no doubt in your big brain as to why:

JuJu stinks outside of zone coverage. JuJu’s sophomore season was an implausible case of right place right time like the guy on my block that got hit by a bus last week lucky mf.

We don’t have to worry about any of that with Ridley, because while the rest of us spent 2020 blazing on our couch, Ridley spent his blazing top NFL d-backs.

Over the last two seasons, we have a 7-game sample-size of games in which Calvin Ridley has played while Julio hasn’t. Ridley spit out weekly lines of:

• 8-91
• 5-110
• 8-136
• 6-50-1
• 8-124-1
• 10-163-1
• 5-130

This isn’t volume, this isn’t fluky, this is just a great wide receiver being great.

This can also very clearly be displayed by Ridley’s Reception Perception numbers:

“It was also striking how both the Falcons and other teams started treating him as that No. 1 wide receiver the longer Julio Jones was out of the lineup. Ridley primarily played flanker with Jones around but moved more to the X-receiver when the stud wideout missed time in 2020. His double coverage rate rose throughout his sample games before finally landing at 6.8 percent of his routes. You notice that Ridley grew comfortable defeating those, sporting a whopping 90.5 percent success rate.” (Matt Harmon)

With Julio out of town (</3), the path is cleared or Ridley to ascend into that ever-elusive 30%+ target share. He was already topping 25%, along with a league-leading 2,063 air yards, 41.4% air-yard share (3rd), the single-most deep targets (40) and the 2nd most redzone targets (22).

The pass volume in Atlanta is going to go down without Dirk Koetter’s reckless abandon of play-calling, but Ridley’s volume is going to be unparalleled along with the efficiency in the redzone that Arthur Smith should bring to the Dirty Birds this year.

**Im obviously aware of the off-season foot surgery done on Calvin Ridley, but as of right now it’s not a concern:

You can factor health into Ridley’s outlook for 2021, but he seems like the next best thing next to Stefon Diggs in relation to ceiling+floor combination at the WR position in fantasy this year. 100-1600-10 is within scope for Ridley this year. Let’s pull the trigger big doooooaauuawgs.

For the 11th straight season, fantasy people will tell you that Robert Woods is underrated, underapprecitaed and an elite value in fantasy football. There’s some truth to it, but a lot of hyperbole. I’d go as far as saying that Woods’ wife throws her popcorn in the microwave, drops her dress and let’s the games begin in their bedroom. She doesn’t have to worry about the popcorn burning or overcooking, because she knows exactly what mark her husband Bobby Trees is finishing. And as fantasy football players, we should too. Here are Woods’ fantasy finishes over the last four years in half ppr points per game:

• 2020: WR19
• 2019: WR17
• 2018: WR17
• 2017: WR18

With Matthew Stafford coming in under Sean McVay, you most definitely want a piece of this passing offense. But with how excited we are about it, we want the ceiling part of it, not the mid-low WR2 asset. Woods is currently getting picked 8 and 1 spots ahead of Cooper Kupp on Underdog and Sleeper, respectively.

The upside in the LA pass-catching group comes down to what you think will happen in the TD department.

In 2020, Robert Woods finished with a career-high 8 touchdowns after averaging 3.9 touchdowns/season in the years leading up to the covid-season. On the inverse, Cooper Kupp finished the year with 3 touchdowns, after averaging 9 touchdowns/season in his first three years (pace included 8-game 2018 season scoring 6 touchdowns).

Case in point, Kupp is going to see an increase in scores; Woods a decrease.

Woods’ 10-zone targets have stayed relatively low annually, he’s just not a big part of the Rams’ game-plan when they find themselves near paydirt. Kupp, however almost always is. Last year, we saw those numbers dip, Kupp saw just five 10-zone targets. Lower than the number he saw in 2018 when he played in 8 games.

A lot of the stat-dip for Kupp can be attributed to the offense as a whole and what they did in that area of the filed.

Inside the opponent’s 10-yard line the Rams threw the ball 31% of the time in 2020. That was the 2nd lowest rate in the NFL. Only New England was lower, obviously bc of Cam.

Now call me crazy, but maybe that’s geared towards the fact that McVay trusted Goff less and less as the years went by. With Stafford under center, this offense will be so much better, more scoring, more trust from McVay that results in more passing when there might be scoring and I think that overall helps Kupp the most. And RIP to Cam Akers which all but cements what I just said real-lifes itself.

It seems all but certain that we’re never going to see a 10+ catch TD season out of Woods, but in half the time, Kupp has already accomplished it. The Rams also added both DJax and Tutu Atwell, the speed guys which gives Kupp space to operate in and out of zones. The outside guys will help stretch the field, but they’re not target-magnets. Stafford likes to take shots downfield, sure, but he’s always had really strong historical success targeting slot guys – Golden Tate, even Danny Amendola, next up Cooper Kupp.

I think Cooper Kupp has masssssive touchdown upside in 2021. Which means he just has massive upside. And I know a lot of people love Robert Woods’ upside with Stafford here, and rightfully so, but Kupp was the WR4 in fantasy in just two years ago. And on that note, he’s also two full years removed from his ACL tear. Things you love to see.

The further we get into the summer, the further and further I fall in love with Brandon Aiyuk, the 2nd year wide receiver in San Francisco.

As a pure receiver, it’s Aiyuk over Deebo Samuel and it’s not close. Deebo is a great athlete, but he’s not a great outside wide receiver or separator. Aiyuk isn’t just better than Deebo as a route-runner, he’s quickly climbing the ladder amongst the league’s best.

I can’t give every one of Matt Harmon’s coverage charts away to y’all for free so go support the man over at receptionperception.com, but he ended Aiyuk’s profile by saying, and I quote: “After his rookie season Reception Perception results, I’m ready to put Aiyuk on the Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin axis in the wide receiver typology. If you’ve been following the series for long enough, you know what that means.”

There are very valid arguments to be made against Aiyuk – he produced when Deebo and Kittle were hurt and this is going to be a run-first offenser. These are arguments that I myself have made this summer, but man, this is probably going to be a very good team and he’s going to be the best outside weapon they have. That enough should warrant his 5/6th round ADP as WR25.

Over the second half of 2020, Aiyuk was licherally unstoppable:

If you owned Aiyuk last year, you know how good he was down the stretch. Starting in Week 7 (discounting Week 17 where he injured his ankle):

• 7-6-115
• 11-8-91-1
• 14-7-75-1
• 9-5-95-1
• 16-10-119
• 13-9-73-1

These are consecutive games he played in while dealing with a hamstring tweak and covid. He didn’t miss a beat. Maybe a heartbeat, but on the field.

Unreal numbers.

At the end of the day, Aiyuk is just a fantastic, ascending player, who has already produced at a high-level on an NFL field, with superb route-running and separation skills in an offense with a very high ceiling.

NFL Media’s Greg Rosenthal is starting to believe that Lance is on schedule to potentially start Week 1 of the regular season.

“This month is about whether Lance develops quickly enough to start Week 1 and nothing else,” Rosenthal wrote Thursday morning. “All reports indicate he’s on schedule or ahead of it.”

Here’s what gives this offense an elite ceiling. Trey Lance will be under center sooner rather than later. As far as Aiyuk goes, you want to draft him sooner rather than later. You don’t want to be a year late on his breakout. And that breakout is now.

Mannnn, I just want a piece of this passing offense and Brown happens to be the cheapest. Oh yeah, he also happens to be one of the greatest WRs of all time.

Brown literally came into the Bucs locker room halfway through the covid-season.

https://twitter.com/ScottSBucs/status/1424742517497597956?s=20

But it didn’t take him long to show us he still had a lot left in the tank. Brown returned to the NFL field in Week 9. From Week 9 through Week 17, here are the target and reception distributions between the big 3 in Tampa:

• Antonio Brown: 62 targets | 45 receptions
• Mike Evans: 62 targets | 40 receptions
• Chris Godwin: 54 targets | 40 receptions

During that span, Antonio Brown was top-12 in fantasy points per route run, while Evans and Godwin ranked 25 and 26, respectively.

Tom Brady absolutely loves Antonio Brown. I absolutely love Tom Brady this year, which means you should love Tom Brady this year which means we should all love Antonio Brown this year.

The Bucs weren’t just kicking the tire on Antonio Brown either, they made it a screaming point to get him involved and get the ball in his hands OFTEN:

Per Brown’s Reception Perception profile, he’s still got plenty of game in him. AB’s success versus man coverage in 2020 ranked inside the 88th percentile all-time in RP.

Brown is apparently BALLING at Bucs training camp right now. This just makes too much sense, while drafting the other two Bucs wideouts 5 rounds earlier makes none at all. This offense simply scores and scores and scored, the second highest-scoring team in the NFL last year (30.8) and Brown finished the year ripping off 6 scores in their final six games.

The GOAT throwing to the GOAT makes for a goated lineup. Brown’s going to return Nordstrom numbers with a J.C. Penny price tag this year.

Darren Waller was on this list in last year’s draft guide, but this time around, we have the big 3… and everyone else.

And at the end of the day, I’m not using my first-round pick on a tight end (Travis Kelce), I’m not using my 2nd round pick on a tight end not named Travis Kelce (Darren Waller) and George Kittle’s price is a reflection of his athleticism and highlight-reel not his actual fantasy situation entering the season (target competition with Deebo and Aiyuk in a run-heavy offense, possibly led by a running QB).

You can make an argument for any of the next 6 TEs off the board – Pitts, Andrews, Hockenson, Goedert, Fant, but I can’t in good faith make an argument to you about NEEDING to draft any of them.

I am, once again, ready to be hurt. I’m going to be pairing these two guys in every fantasy draft I participate in this in 2021.

Tonyan’s ADP is absolutely insane right now, and with the news of Rodgers coming byke to Green Bay (writing this on July 27), it’ll no doubt skyrocket.

Tonyan is exactly what you look for in a breakout tight end. And we’re getting to draft him as if we didn’t already see him breakout lmao.

This is the Darren Waller vs. Logan Thomas narrative. People were worried about Waller entering 2021 because

They assumed (and probably rightfully so) that Waller’s volume would go down. My argument was that it didn’t matter. Waller ranked within the top-5 at the TE position in every EFFICIENCY category in 2019. Volume aside Waller was a baller. You run the same analysis for Logan Thomas, and he ranks outside the top-25 in nearly every TE efficiency statistic. His volume is going down thanks to the additions of Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown. Lower volume + low efficiency = no.

Robert Tonyan was wildly efficient on low volume. The only place that Tonyan’s volume is going is to the moon. He’s coming off a monster year as the TE3 in fantasy. Obviously, that’s TD led (11), but turn your brain on folks, you’re going to see a weird number of scoring opportunities when you’re in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. Yes, I get it, his TD numbers are going to regress, but now he’s the cemented starting tight end, (for years we’ve been trying to force something at TE for Green Bay: Jace Sternburger, Jimmy Graham, Richard Rodgers, Lance Kendricks, like every semi-athletic tight end that’s ever stepped foot on an NFL field, Rodgers has been forced to play with) but it’s Tonyan’s full-time role now and the volume spike is going to be gorgeous.

They love him in Green Bay.

And they hate Aaron Rodgers. This is why they decided to forego adding any weapons to threaten their top pass-catchers volume again.

Volume + efficiency + high scoring offense + accurate QB + little target competition =

A VERY big year for Robert Studyan.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the Patriots see Jonnu Smith as a high-end wide receiver. As smart franchises tend to do, the team in New England did something smart. They signed him to a tight end contract, securing a high-end WR at a tight end price (4-year, $50M). This is sort of what I thought when the Pats signed the stupid athletic 25-year-old, but was confirmed on RotoUnderwold’s first episode of “The Decision Point” which features Anand Nanduri who worked in the NFL as a “salary cap guy”. You should listen to that episode in its entirety, but you can skip to around 44:20 to hear the Patriots talk.

Don’t take my word for it, take Uncle Bill Belichick’s: ”

“He’s just a really good tight end. Blocks well. Runs well. Is a good receiver. (Tennessee) played him at tailback. He’s a very athletic player. Hard to tackle. Catches the ball well. Great after the catch, probably the best in the league. I mean, I can’t imagine anyone better than him after the catch.”

The Patriots are in the midst of completely rebuilding their offense and its identity. Jonnu Smith immediately becomes the best playmaker on that side of the ball for New England. The Pats also signed

We have the precedent of both the QB throwing Jonnu the ball and the coach using Jonnu, highly targeting the tight end in their respective offenses.

Before his career turned into a foot soap opera, Greg Olsen saw target totals in consecutive seasons with Cam Newton of: 104, 109, 123, 124 and 129. Sheeeeesh.

Might have to fact-check me on this but I feel like Bill has a track record of getting athletic tight ends involved in his offenses to mad decent extent.

Jonnu started off the 2020 season on fiyaaaaa.

• 7-4-36-1
• 5-4-84-2
• 8-5-61
• 7-5-40-2

Life dropped off tremendously for Mr. Smith when October marked our calendars. Smith dealt with a quad strain following the Titans Week 5 game, which led to an ankle tweak which led to a knee strain and an all-around flop of a season for Jonnu.

At the end of the day, Jonnu is a stupidly athletic tight end that’s playing in a system that’s seen top-tier TEs thrive, with a QB that has made the same happen, under a coach that loves him and backed that up with a major pay-day. The inconsistency might come, but the upside might, too.